Predicting Bitcoin’s Next Cycle Peak: Crypto Analyst Outlines Potential Timeline Based on Historical Patterns
A prominent cryptocurrency analyst is preparing his substantial audience for the possibility that Bitcoin (BTC) may hit a peak in its value cycle, extrapolating from past patterns.
In an update for his strategy discussion, the crypto trader known as Rekt Capital shared with his 481,200 X platform followers that history suggests Bitcoin’s value might peak between 518 and 546 days post-halving—an event that occurs every four years in April.
“Bitcoin’s value reached its zenith 518 days after the 2015-2017 halving cycle, and 546 days subsequent to the 2019-2021 cycle. If these patterns hold true, and the market’s upward surge happens between 518 to 546 days after the halving event, we would see Bitcoin at its cyclic peak around mid-September or mid-October of 2025.”
However, the crash in the crypto market has altered the expected trajectory, as Rekt Capital notes the decrease in Bitcoin’s momentum.
“Earlier, Bitcoin seemed to edge forward in this cycle by 260 days. Yet, the more than three months of market consolidation has led to a significant slowdown, bringing the advancement to roughly 150 days.
Beyond this point, the longer the consolidation post-halving, the more aligned this cycle might become with previous halving patterns.”
He also posits that the bottom for Bitcoin may have been reached, based on analysis of Bitcoin rebounds since February 2023.
“Listing every Bitcoin retraction since the 2022 market nadir, we observe:
- -23% in February 2023,
- -21% between April and May 2023,
- -22% from July to September 2023,
- -21% in January 2024,
- -23.6% between April and May 2024,
- -21% to date in June 2024. The average cycle retrenchment sits at -22%.
This current downturn closely mirrors the average with a near -22% decline.”
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $56,521, experiencing a decline of 2.6% in the last day.
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