Could Bitcoin Make a Comeback? Investors Hedge Their Wagers on a Turbulent Fourth Quarter, Statistics Indicate

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    <amp-img width="860" height="860" src="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/DALL%C2%B7E-2024-07-08-18.34.53-Create-a-featured-image-for-an-article-titled-Will-Bitcoin-Bounce-Back_-Traders-Place-Their-Bets-on-a-Rocky-Q4-Data-Shows.-Show-the-Bitcoin-BTC-s.jpg?fit=860%2C860" class="attachment-large size-large wp-post-image amp-wp-enforced-sizes i-amphtml-layout-intrinsic i-amphtml-layout-size-defined" alt="Will Bitcoin Recover?" srcset="...[Same srcset as input]" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" data-hero-candidate="" layout="intrinsic" disable-inline-width="" data-hero="" i-amphtml-ssr="" i-amphtml-layout="intrinsic">
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        Can Bitcoin Rally Once More?
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    <p data-id="23a45418-30d8-409d-b01b-99fd11d0d599" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Bitcoin's recent swing in its last session underlines the current unsteady confidence among investors. Peaking at $57,300 earlier, the cryptocurrency later lost momentum at that peak and now trades around $55,966, dropping by 1.6%.</p>

    <p data-id="9529da14-f1d1-4428-9b05-87fa72e60319" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">The heightened volatility underscores growing trepidation in the market, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-starts-july-cpi-data/" target="_blank">investors keeping an eye on crucial technical benchmarks</a>. The trend seems to be shifting, however, with traders now leaning towards more conservative strategies.</p>

    <p data-id="b0634da8-98ee-4520-a2a8-ab4bc5941939" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">ETC Group analysts have remarked on a noticeable rise in Bitcoin options' open interest, indicating a move towards seeking <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin-strikes-a-chord-at-the-bottom-but-can-it-clear-this-major-resistance/" target="_blank">protection from potential downside risks</a>. A telling sign is the surge in implied volatility for options with nearer expiration dates, hinting at anticipations of short-term market movements.</p>

    <h2 data-id="b0634da8-98ee-4520-a2a8-ab4bc5941939" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Insightful Outlooks from the Options Market on Fairing Sentiments</h2>

    <p data-id="6ae2231e-11d8-4964-9c19-910e2918e8fa" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">A look into the Bitcoin options market has revealed prevailing attitudes. According to Deribit's recent numbers, the put-call ratio—which evaluates the volume of put options against call options—stands above 1, indicating a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsbtc.com/news/2-4-billion-worth-of-bitcoin-exit-the-network-as-bear-market-bites/" target="_blank">bearish perspective</a> by the trading activities.</p>

    <p data-id="be6320f4-2def-43e3-8bc9-65a3827ff156" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">This ratio is emblematic of an increased trading frequency that is either betting on a fall or safeguarding against a further drop in price. Such concurrence in trader actions signals a solid portion of the market is preparing for a potential further decline in Bitcoin's value.</p>

    <p data-id="36d91942-e543-4ac4-8faf-2aecbb9a30cf">Echoing this sentiment, ETC Group analysts have noted an unusual pattern in the volatility structure: Implied volatilities are greater for short-term options than for those with longer maturities, which generally represents a pervasive bearish sentiment in the options market.</p>

    <p data-id="36d91942-e543-4ac4-8faf-2aecbb9a30cf">The analysts stated:</p>
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        <p>The uptick in put-call volume ratios as well as the 1-month 25-delta option skew show a clear increase in demand for downside coverage. Furthermore, BTC option implied volatilities have risen slightly during recent price declines. Currently, the implied volatilities for 1-month at-the-money Bitcoin options are around 50.5% per annum.</p>
        <p>An inverted term structure with short-dated options commanding higher implied volatilities than their longer-dated counterparts often signals excessive pessimism in the options market.</p>
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    <h2>Charting a Course Amidst Market Volatility</h2>

    <p data-id="5320f9a8-39e3-44f6-89a8-211dac9c6978" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">This mood is taking a significant toll on the market, with many prominent figures discussing potential future trajectories for Bitcoin.</p>

    <p data-id="5320f9a8-39e3-44f6-89a8-211dac9c6978" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Experienced trader Peter Brandt suggests a double top pattern might be forming in Bitcoin, a bearish indication that suggests potential steep falls to levels around $44K. Brandt acknowledges, however, that this formation may not satisfy all the criteria of a classic pattern and leaves room for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-price-downtrend-54k/" target="_blank">varying outcomes</a>.</p>

    <p data-id="211392d7-9d30-4e9e-970a-a91ed42d2625" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">On a more optimistic note, Timothy Peterson posits that if Bitcoin can close July above $50,000, it has a "strong chance" of maintaining or even appreciating in value through to October.</p>

    <p data-id="211392d7-9d30-4e9e-970a-a91ed42d2625" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Peterson assesses a 60% probability of Bitcoin trading higher in the ensuing months and a 25% likelihood that it will surpass its historic peaks before the next quarter ends.</p>

    <figure class="wp-caption aligncenter amp-wp-8566d8a" data-amp-original-style="width: 2770px">
        <amp-img class="size-medium amp-wp-enforced-sizes i-amphtml-layout-intrinsic i-amphtml-layout-size-defined" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/EpBSat7Y/" alt="Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView" width="2770" height="1496" layout="intrinsic" i-amphtml-layout="intrinsic">
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                <img alt="" aria-hidden="true" class="i-amphtml-intrinsic-sizer" role="presentation" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyBoZWlnaHQ9IjE0OTYiIHdpZHRoPSIyNzcwIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZlcnNpb249IjEuMSIvPg=="/>
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            <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/EpBSat7Y/" alt="Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView" width="2770" height="1496"/>
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            BTC price is trending down on the 2-hour chart. Data sourced from: BTC/USDT <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/HSuSIPeM/?symbol=FX%3AEURUSD" target="_blank">TradingView.com</a>
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    <p data-id="211392d7-9d30-4e9e-970a-a91ed42d2625" data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Featured artwork generated with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView</p>
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