Are ETFs a Mirage? Uncovering the True Catalyst of Bitcoin’s Surge.

7h05 ▪
4
min read ▪ by
Eddy S.

Bitcoin has recently surged, but not for the expected reasons. While Bitcoin ETFs are in the limelight, a different reality is taking shape: global macroeconomic disturbances prompting a frantic search for safe assets.

An investor tearing off a mask to reveal Bitcoin, holding ETF data while appearing distressed.

In Brief

Bitcoin’s rise to $111,000 is attributed more to macroeconomic tensions than to ETFs. Ongoing inflation, increasing bond yields, and skepticism towards central banks bolster BTC as a reliable safe haven. The unstable geopolitical context leads investors to view Bitcoin as a shield against systemic risks.

Bitcoin ETFs: A Secondary Factor Despite the Enthusiasm

Since January 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have drawn nearly $13 billion, setting a record, yet this cannot solely account for the recent spike in BTC to $111,000. This upward momentum is occurring against a backdrop of economic tension, as US 10-year bond yields rose from 4.2% to 4.6% over the course of a month, indicating a decline in market confidence.

In January 2025, Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $13 billion. While record-breaking, this doesn't fully account for Bitcoin's recent surge to $111,000, which is occurring in a tense economic context where US 10-year bond yields rose from 4.2% to 4.6% in one month, showing a drop in market confidence.
In January 2025, Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $13 billion. While record-breaking, this doesn't fully account for Bitcoin's recent surge to $111,000, which is occurring in a tense economic context where US 10-year bond yields rose from 4.2% to 4.6% in one month, showing a drop in market confidence. Bond yields in the US rose from 4.2% to 4.6% in a month.

Concurrently, inflation appears to be structural, stabilizing around 3%, significantly above central banks’ targets. This scenario prompts investors to gravitate towards Bitcoin, which is perceived as a reliable refuge. Its capped supply of 21 million units enhances its attractiveness during volatile periods, extending beyond the rationale of institutional adoption via ETFs.

Bitcoin and Geopolitics: A Response to Fractures in the Global Order

With each geopolitical disturbance, Bitcoin’s presence strengthens. Instability in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and escalating tensions among global powers rekindle interest in sovereign assets. BTC asserts its role as a guard against the risk of monetary fragmentation, especially with Donald Trump’s potential return to power.

Here are key trends reinforcing this positioning:

Increased BTC purchases in high-inflation countries like Argentina and Turkey;
Rising usage by entities trying to bypass global banking restrictions;
Renewed interest in Bitcoin as “digital gold” within institutional portfolios.

Strategic Recomposition: What Investors Understand (or Refuse to See)

The narrative is shifting. The latest Bitcoin rally was not spurred by Bitcoin ETFs, but by an adverse macroeconomic environment. Unfortunately, not everyone acknowledges this. Those clinging to the idea of an imminent economic collapse are swimming against the current. Markets tend to penalize extreme pessimism, while Bitcoin absorbs this perception gap.

What now fuels bullish strategies includes:

A search for returns outside traditional monetary channels;
A loss of faith in central banks as the pillars of stability;
Gradual integration of BTC as a diversification tool against systemic risks.

More than just a speculative asset, Bitcoin (BTC) has become a gauge of global anxieties, symbolizing the decline of trust in monetary institutions, the fear of ongoing inflation, and concerns about a geopolitically unstable landscape.

Despite the record-breaking $6.2 billion raised by IBIT in May, it is not the excitement surrounding Bitcoin ETFs that has recently driven BTC upwards. Instead, it is rooted in anxiety, distrust, and a survival instinct. The latest rise of the crypto leader is not a fleeting trend; it is a muted outcry from a transforming financial ecosystem.

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Eddy S. avatar

Eddy S.

The world is in constant flux, and adaptation is the key to survival in this ever-changing landscape. Initially a crypto community manager, I have developed an interest in all things related to blockchain and its applications. To share my insights and promote a field I am passionate about, I find writing informative and engaging articles to be the best approach.

DISCLAIMER

The opinions expressed in this article solely belong to the author and should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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