Bitcoin Falls Below 200-Day SMA, Showcasing Two Possible Price Scenarios

In the last two years, Bitcoin (BTC) has produced a strong positive price performance gaining by over 300% since the start of 2023. In 2024 alone, the crypto market leader has surged by 40% notably reaching a new all-time high of $73,750 in March. However, recent price developments indicate that Bitcoin’s upward price trajectory may experience significant changes in the coming months.

200-Day SMA Signals Bitcoin’s Price At Crossroads

In an X post on Saturday, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared that the price of BTC has recently dipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating the asset is subject to a change in price movement.

For context, the simple moving average, one of the most common trading tools, is used to identify trends in price data over a specific time e.g. 200 days. As the name implies, the indicator represents the average of all price points in the given period, allowing traders to gauge the overall direction of the market.

Traditionally, when an asset’s price crosses above the SMA, it indicates a price change in the upward direction although the reality of the expected price rise depends on the SMA’s time frame. Alternatively, when a token’s price dips below the SMA, it represents a sell signal as a decline in price is expected.

However, Martinez postulates that BTC’s current dip below its 200-day SMA is temporary and presents a buying opportunity for investors, backing the token’s potential to maintain its current bullish trend. Albeit, in a situation where Bitcoin’s stay below the 200-day SMA becomes longer, the analyst predicts such development could initiate a bear market for the premier cryptocurrency.

Source: Ali Martinez

Bitcoin Price Overview

Based on data from CoinMarketCap, BTC trades at $59,995 with a 1.77% decline in the last seven days. This negative performance underlines the asset’s struggle in the last month during which it lost over 8% of its value, briefly falling below $50,000. Albeit, community sentiment on Bitcoin remains largely bullish indicating that many investors back the token to prove profitable in the long term.

The premier cryptocurrency has been repeatedly tipped to hit six-figure values based on historical price data and other factors including the Bitcoin spot ETF market and most recently potential changes in the US government policy on digital assets. However, Bitcoin’s short-term price targets for now lie at $62,000 and $70,000, both of which present significant resistance levels for the crypto market leader.

Bitcoin BTC trading at $59,817 on the daily trading chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingvie