June 28, 2025

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Bitcoin Follows Gold’s Rally: Analyst Predicts $130,000 BTC Target by Q3 2025

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Bitcoin is following a familiar path reminiscent of gold’s recent history. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows shared an analysis on the social media platform X, indicating that Bitcoin’s current price pattern closely mirrors gold’s journey through its accumulation phase, distribution, and subsequent breakout rally.

This observation, supported by a comparative chart, suggests that Bitcoin’s correction after its recent all-time high is not just healthy but a part of a significant alignment with gold’s bullish trajectory.

Distribution, Reaccumulation, and Next Breakout Setup

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price chart indicates that it is tracing a path similar to gold’s, though across different timeframes. While Bitcoin’s current formation is developing on a mid-range 2-week timeframe, gold’s comparable structure unfolded on a broader monthly candlestick chart. Despite the varying scales, the similarity in structure is noteworthy for what is forthcoming.

In the comparison chart below, gold’s historic pattern shows an initial distribution phase from 2011 to 2013, followed by a lengthy accumulation period that lasted until mid-2019. Following that phase, gold moved into a re-accumulation stage, which continued until 2023, leading to a substantial price surge, with recent highs exceeding $3,300.

Pillows points out Bitcoin’s progression mirrors this. After a euphoric rise to $69,000 in late 2021, Bitcoin entered a distribution phase that persisted throughout 2022. This was followed by a textbook accumulation structure in 2023. Bitcoin broke above $45,000 and entered a reaccumulation phase in late 2024, closely paralleling gold’s price actions just before its breakout.

Apu2BzPuBTC is currently trading at $105,175. Chart: TradingView

Bitcoin’s vertical rally initiated in late 2024 and has continued with recent price movements. The chart below distinctly marks this current BTC phase, with the analyst anticipating a further ascent to new all-time highs.

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Chart Image From X: TedPillows

Bitcoin Expected to Break Out by Q3 2025

Interestingly, gold experienced a similar pullback during its rally phase shortly after reaching a new peak above $2,750. This correction transpired over two monthly candlesticks before it resumed its powerful advance. “Gold also corrected after hitting a new ATH, and the same scenario unfolded with BTC,” noted Pillows.

This indicates that Bitcoin’s current price movements are not indicative of weakness but rather signify a consolidation phase prior to the next upward movement. Just as gold surged sharply after exiting its final reaccumulation, Bitcoin may follow a similar path shortly.

Given this fractal similarity and broader trend behaviors, Pillows predicts that Bitcoin will peak somewhere between $125,000 and $130,000 in Q3 2025. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $105,600.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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