Bitcoin Outperforms Wall Street’s Top Stocks Amid Iran-Israel Tensions, Says Analyst
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This week, Bitcoin maintained a surprisingly stable presence despite escalating global conflicts. According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, recent fluctuations in the coin’s value have calmed.
Investors experienced reduced volatility even following a 7% decline over the weekend, indicating that traders are no longer easily rattled by every news item.
Bitcoin Volatility Drops Below Stocks
According to Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility was around 27–28% as of June 23. This figure is lower than the S&P 500’s approximately 30% and significantly lags behind the Nasdaq 100, which is nearing 35%.
GM ☕️
For those who need a reminder, #bitcoin continues to show lower realized volatility compared to major US equity indices, even amidst unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/nnTW08hera
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) June 23, 2025
Calm Amid Geopolitical Tension
The recent low levels of volatility are especially notable against the backdrop of increasing Middle Eastern conflicts. Reports of US bombings in Iran caused a 6% drop, pushing the cryptocurrency below $100,000. During previous crises—such as the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022—Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility surged to approximately 60–65%. Traders reacted with panic back then, but currently, most market participants appear to hold their positions.
Long-Term Holders Extend Their Grip
According to analysis by Glassnode, long-term holders are retaining a record average of 14.53 million BTC over a 30-day period as of June 23, representing about 70% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $101,890. Chart: TradingView
Over 30% of circulating coins are held by just 216 large entities, including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries. With a significant portion of coins lying idle, frantic trading is less likely.
Institutional Bets Support Price Outlook
Industry veterans like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL’s Eugene Cheung view this tranquility as a precursor to rising prices. They anticipate Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 and maintaining that level as central banks inject liquidity and large investors enter.
Some analysts project prices exceeding $150,000 by the end of 2025, based on consistent demand and dwindling supply on exchanges.
What Comes Next For Bitcoin
The reduced volatility suggests that Bitcoin is maturing, with more individuals treating it as a standard asset. This calmer market may attract more risk-averse investors, although it is unlikely to remain subdued indefinitely.
Major holders could still instigate significant movements through large sales. For now, Bitcoin’s steadier trend may signal a pivotal shift—one that harmonizes traditional market dynamics with the emerging forces influencing cryptocurrency.
Featured image from Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
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