Bitcoin Volatility Dips Below S&P 500 and Nasdaq in Unusual Turn — Galaxy
In April, Bitcoin exceeded expectations by achieving double-digit growth while exhibiting lower volatility compared to major traditional assets.
Analysts from Galaxy Digital report that Bitcoin’s (BTC) realized volatility in the last 10 trading sessions has decreased to 43.86, which is lower than the S&P 500’s 47.29 and the Nasdaq 100’s 51.26 — a surprising trend for a digital asset typically associated with significant volatility.
This statistic emerges amidst a backdrop of renewed financial instability. Following US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2, traditional markets have experienced fluctuations.
The Nasdaq Composite has remained unchanged, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped nearly 4%, and even gold (usually considered a safe haven) briefly reached $3,500 per ounce before retreating to a 5.75% increase, according to Galaxy Digital analysts in a note dated May 12.
Contrarily, Bitcoin experienced an 11% increase during the same timeframe, emphasizing its developing role as a macro hedge in the face of geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has shown negative performance over the past six months. Source: Nasdaq
Decline in Bitcoin’s Correlation with Major Indexes
The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin still exhibits high 30-day correlations with major indexes, registering around 0.62 with the S&P and 0.64 with the Nasdaq. However, its beta has decreased, suggesting that investors are starting to view it less as a high-risk asset and more as a long-term investment.
“Investing in Bitcoin as a non-sovereign asset allows investors to bypass the need for a nation’s full faith or tax support for the asset’s security,” stated Chris Rhine, head of liquid active strategies at Galaxy.
Galaxy observed that current investor patterns resemble those seen during the US-China trade tensions of 2018–2019 when Bitcoin surged amid increasing global uncertainty.
Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, mentioned to Cointelegraph that the rising inflows into ETFs and the ongoing acquisitions of Bitcoin by Strategy are contributing to Bitcoin’s evolution into a digital equivalent of gold, becoming less correlated with equities.
“As institutional liquidity deepens, volatility diminishes, positioning Bitcoin as a fundamental asset for portfolios,” Huang added.
Meanwhile, Galaxy’s OTC trading desk described the market stance as “tactically cautious but structurally positive,” characterized by disciplined leverage and minimal hedging stress.
With 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply already mined and increasing institutional interest, ETFs, and even government involvement, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a digital store of value.
“The supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin are strengthening its position as a mature digital store of value,” commented Ian Kolman, co-portfolio manager at Galaxy.
On April 25, Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s head of thematics and active ETFs, remarked on the sustained trend of countries reducing their dependence on dollar-based reserves in favor of assets like gold and, more recently, Bitcoin.
He pointed out that geopolitical fragmentation is driving demand for uncorrelated assets, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed as a safe-haven alongside gold.
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