Expert Predicts Bitcoin Reserve of 1 Million BTC Could Help Reduce $21 Trillion National Debt by 2049

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, has proposed a vision for how the U.S. Treasury could utilize Bitcoin BTC/USD to bolster its balance sheet.

What Occurred: Sigel outlined VanEck’s calculations in a post on X last Friday, projecting that if Bitcoin appreciates at an annual rate of 25%—reaching $21 million per BTC by 2049—the reserves could offset 18% of the predicted U.S. debt.

This speculation is based on a scenario where the debt increases at 5% annually, reaching $116 trillion by 2049 (up from $36 trillion in 2025).

While this scenario is optimistic, it highlights Bitcoin’s potential as a national reserve asset and a hedge against inflationary debt growth.

The BITCOIN Act, proposed by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, suggests that the U.S. should accumulate 1 million BTC in five years and hold it for at least 20 years as a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum Face Downside Risk As Institutional Demand Fades, JPMorgan Says

Why It’s Important: Polymarket currently projects a 44% likelihood of a U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, up from 39% earlier this month.

Kalshi’s data indicates a 59% chance that Trump would establish a Bitcoin Reserve if elected, an increase from 53.8% on Feb. 12.

Arkansas is poised to be the first state to create a Bitcoin reserve, with anticipated amendments by March 5. Meanwhile, Texas is gearing up to discuss the proposal in its Senate.

What’s Coming Next: Momentum is growing for Bitcoin as a potential national strategic asset, with state-level initiatives laying the groundwork for potential federal adoption.

Although speculative, institutional backing and policy deliberations could shape Bitcoin’s role as a financial cornerstone in the U.S. economy.

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