How Much Capital Causes $1 Change In Bitcoin Market Cap?

The lead analyst at Glassnode has explained how much capital one would need to change the Bitcoin market cap by $1.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Needs To Change By This Much For $1 Market Cap Change

In a new post, the lead analyst at the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, @_Checkmatey_, has discussed the impact of capital flowing into or out of Bitcoin on the asset’s market cap.

To make this calculation, the analyst has used the “realized cap” model of BTC. This capitalization model assumes that the real value of any coin in circulation is not the current spot price but the price at which it was moved on the blockchain.

As the realized cap includes the price every investor bought their coins at, its value essentially represents the total amount of money the holders have put into the asset. “Sure, there are nuances, but it is a pretty damn close estimation in my experience,” says the Glassnode lead.

Now, to see what the exact amount of change produced on the market cap is when this realized cap changes (implying an inflow or outflow of capital), the analyst has taken the 90-day percentage change of both these metrics and has then taken their ratios (the realized cap first, then the market cap).

Below is the chart for this Bitcoin ratio.

The ratio between the 90-day changes in realized cap and market cap | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X

The graph shows the ratio between the 90-day changes in realized cap and market cap colored in grey. As is apparent, it looks like the value of this metric has fluctuated a lot over the years.

Some interesting patterns can be noted, however. It would appear that bull markets have historically tended to peter out when the ratio has gone above 1.0.

At this value, more than $1 must be invested into the asset to raise the market cap by $1. Naturally, this is unsustainable, which is likely why the top becomes likely to be hit when these conditions form.

Before 2016, the metric’s value fluctuated between $0.45 and $1, as the Bitcoin market was still immature, and few holders ever HODLed their coins for significant periods.

However, the 4-year median (the red line) has dropped to just $0.25. “HODLers are more in tune with Bitcoin than ever before due to education, and the liquid circulating supply continues to decline,” explains the analyst. “This is despite there being an ATH in circulating supply.”

As the chart shows, the BTC realized capital-to-valuation change ratio currently has a value of less than $0.25, meaning that less than 25 cents is all it takes to move the market cap by $1.

“So to summarize, there is no perfect model for capital in vs. valuation out, but my instinct is that this isn’t the worst estimation approach,” notes the Glassnode lead. “It keeps it simple and aligns with gut feel and smell tests, usually good indicators.”