Is Bitcoin Ready to Surge? Leading Analyst Links BTC Rally to Global Money Supply Increase
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This week, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 threshold, reaching $104,000 before stabilizing at around $103,000. This uptick followed news that officials from the US and China would meet in Switzerland to discuss a potential trade agreement. The markets reacted swiftly, and optimism returned, prompting Bitcoin‘s rise. However, analysts believe the real narrative lies beyond the headlines—global liquidity is the pivotal factor.
Global M2 Hits $111 Trillion
Julien Bittel, a macro researcher at Global Macro Investor, suggests that the global M2 money supply is a reliable leading indicator for Bitcoin’s future. He shared a chart demonstrating that there’s typically a 12-week delay between rising M2 and the price of the leading cryptocurrency. In simple terms, as M2 increases, Bitcoin tends to follow approximately three months later.
Many have requested the updated Global M2 versus Bitcoin chart. Here it is…
And indeed – it reinforces the same narrative:
We’re heading upwards… pic.twitter.com/kv7QSE9iGN
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) May 9, 2025
From early 2023 to early 2024, global M2 rose from $98 trillion to slightly over $108 trillion, coinciding with Bitcoin finally breaking above $100,000. However, by mid-2024, M2’s growth came to a halt for a spell.
During this phase, Bitcoin also declined, dipping below $80,000. Bittel described this period as a consolidation phase. Currently, M2 is on the move again—rapidly surpassing $111 trillion. If the current trend holds, BTC could continue to rise through mid-2025.
Bittel commented, “We’re going higher,” referencing the substantial rise in global M2 as the indicator.
BTC is currently priced at $103,847. Chart: TradingView
Other Analysts See Bitcoin as the Leader
However, not all analysts share Bittel’s perspective on timing. Analyst Benjamin Cohen has expressed skepticism about the notion that the crypto asset consistently lags behind liquidity fluctuations. He highlighted that Bitcoin reached its peaks in 2017 and 2021 prior to M2 hitting its apex, which contradicts the 12-week lead theory.
Cohen offered a different viewpoint, positing that Bitcoin might actually lead, with changes in M2 manifesting later. If this is true, the recent price surge could be signaling a forthcoming decline in global liquidity.
What if #Bitcoin is leading liquidity instead of lagging behind it?
Many showcase a chart that adjusts global M2 by 3-4 months, indicating that BTC follows this trend.
The issue with this is that in 2021, this adjustment indicates M2 continued to rise for six months post-BTC’s peak. pic.twitter.com/gpkbW9jboG
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) May 8, 2025
Aftermath of the FTX Collapse Still Resonates
Cohen also noted the events of 2022, when Bitcoin experienced a significant drop. This decline coincided with M2 bottoming out, but the aftermath was prolonged due to the FTX crisis. He argued that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations do not always align with M2 timelines, as disruptive events from exchange failures can skew patterns.
This insight presents an alternate forecast. If BTC is trailing rather than leading, the ongoing rally could hint at potential risks rather than strength.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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