Is the Bitcoin Reserve in 100 Days of Trump’s Presidency Still Questionable to the Market?

President Donald Trump’s recent Truth Social post over the weekend sparked discussions about the potential creation of a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve. However, Polymarket traders remain doubtful that this will materialize within the first 100 days.

At present, Polymarket bettors are estimating a 23% likelihood of a strategic BTC reserve being established within the initial 100 days of Trump’s presidency—that is, by April 30th, 2025.

(Polymarket)

The contract’s terms stipulate that the U.S. government must specifically possess bitcoin—acquired through legitimate means, not confiscation—by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for a positive resolution. Mere announcements regarding the creation of the reserve are not sufficient for this outcome to be deemed a success.

Following Trump’s announcement, the probability of the reserve becoming a reality increased from 11% to 23 in a brief span. An alternative contract querying the likelihood of a reserve being established by the end of 2025 presently places a 65% chance on a positive resolution.

Initially, Trump’s social media post only mentioned XRP and SOL as components of the reserve, causing their values to surge, before later clarifying that BTC and ETH would also form part of the reserve.

Among the traders involved in the 100-day crypto reserve contract, Theo5 stands out, having accumulated a considerable profit. Theo5 appears to be affiliated with a French trader, who created multiple accounts, including Theo4, to place directional bets on Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election.

Notably, Theo5 has realized a $40,000 profit in his no position.

(Polymarket Analytics)

Conversely, a trader known as Polywog experienced losses of $73,000 on a positive position and over $560,000 due to inaccurate bets on the 2025 election outcome.

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