Lyn Alden reduces Bitcoin forecast following trade dispute, focuses on liquidity
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden predicts that Bitcoin will end 2025 at a higher price than its current level of around $85,000, although she believes it could have been even higher if not for the tariff announcement made by US President Donald Trump in February.
Speaking to Natalie Brunell on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories, Alden stated, “Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target.” She added, “My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least.”
Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading bolsters volatility when TradFi “freaking out”
She mentioned that a “massive liquidity unlock” might be the trigger for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach more optimistic targets, similar to those before the tariffs were introduced. Alden explained that if the US bond market were to “break” and the US Federal Reserve had to intervene with measures like yield curve control or heavy quantitative easing (QE), it could have a significant impact.
Lyn Alden spoke to Coin Stories’ host Natalie Brunell on April 17. Source: Natalie Brunell
While Alden believes there is a “good chance” that Bitcoin will surpass the $100,000 price level by the year’s end, she highlighted that broader financial market “down days” will continue to pose a challenge for the asset, particularly due to Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading compared to traditional stock markets.
Alden explained, “Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare.”
She also pointed out that crypto’s round-the-clock trading contributes to its “volatile pricing,” especially when traditional financial markets are “freaking out.”
Bitcoin’s current trading price is $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap data.
However, Alden suggested that Bitcoin can “disconnect” from the Nasdaq 100, particularly in scenarios that “hurt Nasdaq margins” without impacting global liquidity. She referenced the five years leading up to the 2008 global financial crisis as an example of a favorable period for Bitcoin.
She highlighted the period between 2003-2007, characterized by a weaker US dollar cycle where capital flowed into “emerging markets,” commodities, gold, and other assets, indicating Bitcoin’s potential to perform well in similar conditions.
In a September research report, Alden noted that Bitcoin moves in line with global M2 direction 83% of the time within a year. The research labeled Bitcoin a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” showing it to have a strong correlation with global liquidity compared to other major asset classes.
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