Potential Rise to $180K (Charts)
Even though the price of Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has retraced to around $103,000, various fundamental, on-chain, and technical indicators imply that Bitcoin may be poised to restart its bullish trajectory towards 2025.
The U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing significant capital inflows, with data from SoSoValue revealing a total of $6.4 billion in net inflows into these investment vehicles within the past four weeks.
The chart below illustrates that following their launch on January 11, 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows for seven consecutive weeks, amassing $11.4 billion from early February 2024 to mid-March 2024. This trend preceded a 73% increase in BTC price, reaching previous all-time highs of $73,800 on March 14, 2024.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Data. Source: SoSoValue
Moreover, from October 2024 to December, cumulative weekly inflows reached $17.6 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s 60% rally from $67,000 to $108,000 during the same timeframe.
These instances reinforce the notion that sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs demonstrate robust institutional demand as investor sentiment continues to rise.
Recently, social media has seen a resurgence in positive sentiment. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, a measure of investor sentiment, currently sits at an impressive score of 74, indicating prevailing “greed” in the market.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
Importantly, this index has risen above the 50 mark after remaining below the mid-level from February to April, showcasing strong positive sentiment from market participants regarding the broader crypto landscape.
This sentiment pattern has historically preceded price surges and could signal an upcoming bull run. Notably, the last time sentiment reached this level of greed was in November 2024, shortly before Bitcoin surged to its previous all-time high of $108,000 on December 16, 2024.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin is likely to maintain its upward momentum towards new all-time highs.
The recent surge past $107,000 indicates that over 97% of all Bitcoin in circulation has turned profitable, yet this has not prompted widespread profit-taking, according to CryptoQuant data.
CryptoQuant’s short-term holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric shows that even though STHs are now in profit, they are not aggressively taking profits.
SOPR is used to determine whether STHs are at a profit or loss compared to their initial Bitcoin holdings. A value above 1 suggests that a majority of coins have made a profit on short-term investments, whereas a value below 1 indicates a majority are currently at a loss.
The chart below illustrates that this indicator currently sits at 1.01%, indicating that STHs are realizing some profits without overheating the market.
A SOPR reading of 1.01% was considered overheated during the two months of sideways price movement observed since March (when prices fluctuated between $80,000 and $98,000), implying that there’s more room for BTC to appreciate before hitting this threshold.
If Bitcoin’s price exceeds the all-time high, and the SOPR for short-term holders continues to climb, BTC may initiate a significant parabolic rally.
Bitcoin STH SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s price actions have led to the emergence of a bull flag pattern on the weekly timeframe, indicating a substantial potential upward movement for the premier cryptocurrency.
A bull flag is a bullish technical chart formation suggesting a possible continuation of upward price movement following a strong rally. It forms when the price consolidates in a downward-sloping channel, resembling a flag, after a steep upward movement (the flagpole).
This pattern indicates a pause among buyers before the resumption of the uptrend. It typically resolves when the price breaks above the upper trendline of the flag, often accompanied by increased volume, confirming the continuation.
BTC/USD Weekly Chart. Source:TradingView
The bull flag was confirmed after the price moved above the upper trendline at $86,800 on April 22. Bitcoin could potentially rise as much as the previous uptrend’s height, setting an upper price target at $180,000. This increase would signify a 74% rise from current price levels.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index is positive at 62, suggesting favorable market conditions for further appreciation, enhancing BTC’s chances of reaching its bull flag target.
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