7 Indicators That Suggest the Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Beyond $70,000 (Analysis)

The current upward trend in the market appears to be part of a recurring cycle, with seven indicators pointing to its nascent stage.

Merely twenty-one days ago, on the 12th of February, Bitcoin breached the significant $50,000 level. Sean Farrell, the Head of Digital Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, commented, “There’s potential for further growth in this rally in the short term.”

And he wasn’t wrong.

The rapid increase on cryptocurrency exchange platforms peaked just over $70,000 on the 5th of March, Friday, before a slight pullback to its current standing. Indeed, the surge post-$50,000 mark had some momentum behind it.

Now, let’s examine eight indicators that suggest the rally isn’t just ongoing, but also has the potential to stretch beyond its current all-time price peak, the first in nearly 30 months.

1. The Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Remains High

Bitcoin’s valuation is skyrocketing to unprecedented heights, all while the federal funds rate, used for borrowing U.S. dollars, remains unadjusted. The previous significant upsurge in Bitcoin’s value was under a flood of dollar availability, with the Federal Reserve maintaining low rates. In this instance, the climb occurred irrespective of such rates.

James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research, reported to ABC News that “the rapid rise has happened during a period of persistently high interest rates, indicating that increased demand is minimally linked to surplus liquidity seeking investment opportunities.”

If predictions hold true, by 2024, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against Federal Reserve policy could significantly drive its demand, while benefiting from the investment surge that tech stocks experience during an environment flushed with cash and cheap borrowing costs due to low interest rates.

2. Bitcoin’s First-Ever $20K Monthly Price Movement

In February, Bitcoin registered its first $20,000 monthly price movement, a noteworthy benchmark that suggests potential for sudden and dramatic price fluctuations ahead.

According to a lead on-chain Glassnode analyst who posted, “Incredible… February 2024 saw a $19.84k #Bitcoin candle, the largest ever gain in a month in USD. This added $390 billion to the #Bitcoin market cap… An astonishing rise of 47%.”

3. Decline in Weekend Bitcoin Exchange Activities

A recent study at the end of February by cryptocurrency data analytics firm Kaiko Research revealed a decline in weekend trading as a share of the total volume:

“Interestingly, this trend has been in the making for quite some time: BTC trading during weekends has considerably diminished over the past six years, decreasing from 24% in 2018 to merely 17% in 2023.”

This likely signifies cryptocurrencies’ broader acceptance and usage by institutions, which predominantly transact during regular business days, Monday to Friday.

And the pattern persists in 2024:

“To date in 2024, a mere 13% of all BTC transactions from January 1st to February 20th happened over the weekend. Divided by region, weekend trading volumes have reduced on both offshore exchanges and those available in the U.S.”

The decrease from 17% to 13% vividly illustrates the extensive impact of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the marketplace.

4. Coinbase Struggles Under Rally Intensity

Signals of a notably sharp rally include the halving event’s pending occurrence and Coinbase’s systems being overwhelmed by trading volumes. The San Francisco-based crypto exchange faced an outage at February’s end as market activities intensified.

An overload of traffic led to system failures, resulting in erroneous zero-balance notifications for users.

CEO Brian Armstrong released a statement,

“Apps are now in recovery. We had anticipated a ~10x spike in traffic and stress-tested for it. The actual numbers far exceeded our projections. Over-provisioning services is cost-intensive, yet we will continue to strategize on auto-scaling solutions and removing any residual bottlenecks.”

The incident took place shortly after Bitcoin’s value surpassed the $60,000 mark on the exchange — a price not seen since 2021. As news of the Coinbase technical issues spread on social media that Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin experienced a roughly $2,800 reduction in value.

5. Enormous Bitcoin Withdrawal by a Whale

Sorry, it’s not on the market. This significant player isn’t selling. Early March 1, a whale retracted $1 billion in Bitcoin, which translates to 16,000 BTC, from Coinbase as tracked by Santiment.

This event is seen as a bullish sign for Bitcoin’s valuation. Although the cryptocurrency was reaching its former peak value, the whale displayed no interest in cashing out. The sentiment is clearly shared by others.

During February, other whales transferred an additional billion dollars’ worth of Bitcoin away from Coinbase. They could have made a profit by selling now, but the decision hints at expectations for a further price increase.

Moreover, there has been a decline to a six-year low in Bitcoin availability on exchanges, a continuing trend reinforced by the significant withdrawal.

This reveals strong confidence, long investment horizons, and broad global support for Bitcoin’s price prospects.

6. Bitcoin ETFs Accumulate 4% of BTC Supply

Data from BitMEX shows that as March began, spot Bitcoin ETFs held 776,464 BTC, representing a staggering 4% of the total Bitcoin supply. Wall Street-regulated ETF markets ate up this substantial portion of Bitcoin’s on-chain spot supply in less than two months’ time.

This substantial appropriation, as highlighted by Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, who remarked,

“Bitcoin’s available stock cannot meet all the fresh demand, thus the basic supply/demand principles are catapulting prices upwards.”

7. Potential Legislation to Permit Banks to Hold BTC

ETFs will be competing for Bitcoin alongside retail investors. Furthermore, there’s potential for the banking sector to enter the fray for Bitcoin, elevating scarcity and prices to new highs.

In the House Financial Services Committee, Representative Mike Flood (R-NE) proposed a resolution that “aims to protect customers by eliminating obstacles that prevent highly regulated banks from being custodians of digital assets.”

With ETF providers and now major banks with regulated custody abilities joining the market, we see an increasing global scarcity for the finite supply of 21 million BTC, thereby continuing to contribute to the ongoing supply and demand shock.