Crypto Trader Warns of Potential Bitcoin Plunge, Predicts a Drop to $70,085 if Key Support Fails

An eminent cryptocurrency analyst is alerting that a sharp downturn in Bitcoin’s value is possible should the cryptocurrency break through a crucial support threshold. According to an analysis conveyed by BTC, this could occur.

Noted cryptocurrency strategist, Ali Martinez, informed his social media following on platform X, which numbers over 104,000, that a 27% decline from its present price is plausible if Bitcoin doesn’t uphold its position over $93,806. Martinez’s update can be read via his X profile here.

To pinpoint these critical support levels, Martinez utilizes the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Realized Price Distribution (URPD) model. This model tracks the volume of coins that were last active within a specified price bracket.

“On-chain data suggest that a recoil to $70,000 may be in the cards for Bitcoin, given that beneath the $93,806 mark there’s a considerable gap down to approximately $70,085,” the analyst stipulates.

Martinez highlights that certain market players seem to be bracing for a downtrend by transferring their Bitcoin holdings onto trading platforms, potentially to offload them. This can be detailed in his analysis here.

“Proactive traders have recognized the possibility of this downturn, moving upwards of 33,000 Bitcoins to exchange platforms within the last seven days—these are valued in excess of $3.23 billion!”

According to the analyst, another group of traders has already started cashing out in anticipation of a potential market correction as shown by Martinez’s update here.

“There’s also a grouping that is locking in profits. For instance, Bitcoin saw over $7.17 billion in profits being realized on December 23rd alone,” remarks Martinez.

Martinez also observes a noticeable decline in optimism on the leading digital currency exchange Binance, where fewer traders are wagering on Bitcoin’s rise. Further insights can be found here.

“In addition, there’s been a significant drop—from 66.73% to 53.60%—in the fraction of Binance traders with ongoing long positions in Bitcoin.”

For Bitcoin’s current pessimistic trajectory to reverse, the cryptocurrency must convincingly retake the $100,000 level as a support, as depicted daily on the In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) metric, an analysis by the cryptocurrency expert highlights.

“Bitcoin’s break below $97,300, a key support zone, needs to be reversed. To annul the bearish prediction, BTC has to restore this crucial support area and more crucially, secure a daily closing above the $100,000 mark!” he delineates.

If Bitcoin does manage to close above $100,000 on the daily chart, Martinez postulates that the lead cryptocurrency could ascend to $168,500, based on the Mayer Multiple—an oscillator that considers different price rates in relation to the 200-day moving average.

“A daily candle close above $100,000 could pave the way for Bitcoin to aim at $168,500,” he anticipates.

At the time of this report, Bitcoin’s exchange rate is $95,855, showing a 2.3% reduction over the past 24 hours.

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