Over $9.4 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire Friday – Will it Trigger a Max Pain of $51K? Insights from TradingView News

Bitcoin, with a market value surpassing $9.4 billion in options, is anticipated to reach its expiration on the prominent cryptocurrency platform Deribit on March 29. Market experts have postulated that the optimal pain point for Bitcoin could potentially hover around $50,000.


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Approximation of Bitcoin’s Max Pain at $50K

On the Deribit exchange, the curtain is set to fall on open interest of more than 134,000 BTC at 8 am UTC, Friday, with signs pointing towards a $50,000 max pain threshold according to insights from Unfolded on a March 27 X (formerly Twitter) dispatch.

Related: Bitcoin surges past $70K as Coinbase’s BTC reserves hit a nine-year low

The so-called max pain price is the option strike price that, if Bitcoin were to settle at it, would inflict the greatest financial distress on the largest number of option holders upon expiration.

Should there be a downturn in the influx to spot Bitcoin ETFs, Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, predicts we might witness Bitcoin adjust to a value of $51,000. He expressed this view in a March 22 X post:

“On-chain cost basis for new large-scale investors, primarily those buying into ETFs, stands at $56K. Typically, in bullish periods, we see corrections manifest as a roughly 30% drawdown, which aligns with a $51K max pain point.”

Coinciding with the highest Bitcoin closing price above $69,000 in recent days, spot Bitcoin ETFs documented net movements of over $15 million on March 25. Cumulatively, the ten Bitcoin ETFs observed amassed net inflows totaling $418 million the following day, March 26.

Is the Bitcoin Price Downtrend Pre-Halving Complete?

The recent decrease in Bitcoin’s valuation aligns with historical patterns seen in pre-halving phases, as Rekt Capital points out in a March 25 X post:

“The anticipated Pre-Halving Retrace took place precisely on cue. Bitcoin has since reclaimed the $70,000 mark.”

Should Bitcoin convincingly surge past its previous record high of $69,000, we may consider the pre-halving correction phase as concluded, argues Rekt Capital, in a March 26 video review:

“Bitcoin’s ascent above this former peak suggests this pre-halving retracement could well be behind us.”

Analysis from Bitfinex implies that last week’s Bitcoin price alteration indicates a local bottom may have been established, or is within reach, as mentioned in a note conveyed to Cointelegraph:

“The downturn experienced by Bitcoin from its recent peak of $73,666, amounting to a correction near 17.5 percent, implies the formation of a local bottom is imminent, if not already present.”

This material does not include investment guidance or propositions. Each investment and trading movement entails hazards, and individuals are urged to undertake personal research before making financial decisions.